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Market Commentary: Friday, November 20/20

Transcript

Hog futures are trading higher. Narrow trading ranges were seen Friday morning with most contracts holding light-to-moderate gains. At this point, traders are focusing on bringing a sense of stability back to the market before the weekend, although the bearish market tone set Thursday is likely to spark renewed longer-term pressure heading into Thanksgiving week. The fact that nearby contracts are still well below recent support levels of $65 per cwt, could limit active buying interest in what could be a very lightly traded day. Longer-term concerns about maintaining or building strong export demand through the coming months may continue to keep the market under pressure.   

Cash hog bids are expected $1 lower to $1 per cwt higher, with most bids steady to 50 cents lower. Prices are higher on the National and lower on the Iowa Minnesota morning reports.  The morning cutout value is lower. 

The Canadian Dollar is trading lower against the US dollar at midday. 

For the week ending Nov 20, the Western Hog Exchange OlyWest 20 weekly price is $1.658/kg dressed, the OlyWest 21 weekly price is $1.812/kg dressed, and the BP4 price is $1.6623/kg dressed. This is Pat Matthezing reporting from the Western Hog Exchange.

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

 

Things to Consider….

Retail bacon prices climbed 10 cents higher to $5.72/lb for October, bringing retail values +1.2% or 7 cents over year ago levels.  Current retail bacon price levels are only 3 cents over the 3 year average for the month of October.

Wholesale belly prices by comparison increased $18.87 to $156.94/cwt for October, a 13.7% increase from the month of September. Compared to last year, wholesale bellies are $31.05/cwt or +24.7% over October 2019.

Overall, retail chop prices declined 17 cents or -4.4% for October to $3.63/lb, bringing chops 39 cents or +12.2% over last year. Current retail price levels are 30 cents over the 3 year average for the month of October.  Boneless chop prices fell 23 cents to $4.14/lb, bringing boneless chops +11.4% or $0.42 over last year. Bone-in chop prices fell 12 cents to $3.95/lb, bringing the cut +4.6% or 17 cents over last year.

Wholesale loins increased $10.50 to $84.27/cwt or +14.2% over the previous month, and +21.4% or $17.67/cwt over last year.

The category reporting total retail ham values was reported for the first time since March, reaching a historical high at $3.48/lb for October which is 5 cents or +1.3% over last year and 23 cents over the 3-year average. Boneless ham values edged 2 cents higher or +0.5% to $4.56/lb, bringing them +2.1% or 9 cents over last year.

Wholesale ham prices averaged $82.84/cwt, up $3.86 or +4.9% from September, and brought hams $19.71/cwt or +31.2% over year ago levels. For comparison wholesale picnics averaged $64.16/cwt, up $7.09 or +12.4% from September and $7.37/cwt or +13.0% over last year.

The category reporting other retail pork prices rose 10 cents or +3.4% to $2.99/lb, with the category +10.1% or 27 cents over year ago levels.  Current retail price levels are 34 cents over the 3 year average for the month of October.  

November 17, 2020


Weekly Hog Price Recap

Regional and national cash generally declined however did report gains early in the week. CME cash improved for much of the week with some weakness the latter half, particularly Friday. Wholesale pork values varied however week-over-week declines in bellies, hams and loins weighed pork cutout $0.99/cwt under the previous week.  

Canadian hog markets fell again this past week on continued declines in hog and pork prices. BP/TC and the OlyW 20 each dropped near $11/hog, followed by the OlyW 21 which declined closer to $9.50/hog from the previous week. Hylife fell nearly $5/hog while the Sig 4 declined $4.50/hog and eastern markets such as Ontario and Quebec were down $3/hog. US hog values also fell with Tyson and JM values each down nearly $1.75/hog from week ago levels.

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored hog margins reported significant weakness this past week amid falling hog values and rising feed costs. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs jumped nearly $3.50/hog higher while those in the monitored US region were up more than $2.50/hog. 

Margins out of Hylife weakened $8.25 to $16/hog profits and remain the strongest overall compared to other monitored markets. Hog margins out of Quebec and the OlyW 20 each ended the week at around $9/hog profits, down $6.50 and $14.25/hog respectively, and the OlyW 21 weakened $13 to $4.25/hog profits. Margins out of the Sig 4 and Ontario slipped to negative margins at $2/hog losses, with the Sig 4 down nearly $8 and Ontario $6.50 lower on the week. In the US, Tyson margins weakened $3.75 to $0.75/hog profits while JM margins fell more than $4.25 to $7.50/hog losses.

US Regional Margins

  • Tyson: $0.76 USD X 1.3064 = $0.99 in Canadian Dollars
  • Morrell $(7.58) USD X 1.3064 = $(9.90) in Canadian Dollars



Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee, and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.