Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

The latest data for Canadian domestic pork exports reflected May at 107.7 thousand MT, down –16.0% from the previous month and -12.1% under last year. Overall, pork export values for the same period fell –9.8% from April and is –1.0% under a year earlier.

Total swine carcass and cut exports fell –11.1% to 68.2 thousand MT, bringing current exports –4.5% lower on the year. Overall values fell –9.3% on the month but continue significantly strong compared to year-ago values, up +10.9% over 2023. For perspective, the latest value per unit of $4.22/KGM increased +2.1% from a month earlier and is +16.1% over last year.

Ham exports dropped –27.3% from April levels to 19.6 thousand MT, bringing them –20.7% under last year, while the values of these exports were down –9.9% on the month and –19.3% under year-ago values. For perspective, the latest value per unit at $3.44/KGM surged +24.0% from April and is +1.7% over last year.

Belly exports increased +18.2% to 17.2 thousand MT in the latest data, bringing current exports –11.9% under last year. Belly export values rose +21.3% on the month and are +13.2% over last year. For perspective, the latest value per unit at $8.00/KGM were up +2.6% from April and is +28.6% higher compared to last year.

Pork shoulder exports surged +109.6% for May to 63.2 MT, bringing them +82.7% over last year. For perspective, values per unit at $8.25/KGM edged +0.3% higher on the month but are –17.4% under last year.

Edible swine offal exports dropped –27.8% into May to 9.7 thousand MT, bringing them –27.8% under a year earlier. For perspective, swine offal values per unit of $2.57/KGM increased +6.5% from April and is –3.9% under last year.

For reference, Canadian pork production is estimated to be +20.0% higher from April into May, and +1.3% over last year-to-date. Notably, the percentage of Canadian pork production exported globally is estimated at 50.9% for May, compared to the 12-month average of 63.1%.

  July 23, 2024
 
 
 

Weekly Hog Price Recap

Cash hogs generally started the week higher, excluding the ISM which faced a significant decline due to going unreported the previous Friday when other cash hogs were lower, with all markets again lower this past Friday to weigh the weekly averages down. CME cash improved daily, with better gains late in the week. Wholesale pork primal values primarily improved, although ribs and butts were again lower (down -1.3% & -1.7%, respectively), supporting US pork cutout $4.33/cwt over the previous week's average.

Monitored Canadian hog markets were higher, excluding some derived from lagged base pricing which slipped under values reported a week ago. Hogs out Quebec were up the most, surging $10.25/hog, while Hylife hogs improved $3.55/hog and those out of Ontario were up $2.80/hog. The ML Sig 4 improved $1/hog and the OlyW 21 climbed $0.30/hog higher, while the OlyW 20 fell $1.45/hog and BP4/TC4 was down $2/hog. In the US, Tyson hogs dropped $9.65/hog while JM hogs fell $6.70/hog from the previous week.
 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins primarily improved on generally higher hog values and lessened feed costs. Farrow-to-finish feed costs dropped $0.90-$1.10/hog on either side of the CAN-US border from the week previous.

Ontario hog margins strengthened $3.75 to $50.30/hog profits, followed by ML Sig 4 margins which improved $2 to $48.30/hog profits. OlyW 20 margins weakened $0.55 to $45.90/hog profits for the week, while Hylife margins were up $4.45 to $44.75/hog profits. Hog margins out of Quebec strengthened $11.15 to $37.80/hog profits, while OlyW 21 margins improved $1.20 to $32.20/hog. In the US, Tyson hog margins weakened $8.55 to $49/hog profits while JM margins fell $5.60 to $43/hog profits for the week.
 

US Regional Margins

• Tyson: $49.03 USD * 1.3692 = $67.13 CAD
• Morrell: $42.94 USD * 1.3692 = $58.79 CAD

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

US retail bacon edged +0.1% from the month previous with the average June price at $6.83/lb, bringing the latest prices +9.7% over year-ago levels. For comparison, current retail bacon prices are 6 cents over the 3-year average for the month of June. 

Wholesale belly values were up +0.6% in June to $124.37/cwt, with current values +29.7% over the year previous. Notably, wholesale belly values are $21.76/cwt under the 3-year historical average.

All retail chops edged +0.1% higher to $4.40/lb for June, bringing the latest retail chop prices +3.7% over last year. For comparison, current retail price levels are $0.26 over the 3-year average for the month of June.     Boneless chops fell -1.0% to $4.59/lb, bringing boneless chops +1.5% over last year. Bone-in chop prices improved +1.6% to $4.62/lb, bringing the cut +1.2% over year-ago levels. 

Wholesale loin values were down -2.6% from the previous month to $98.80/cwt in June, bringing current loin values +9.2% over last year. Notably, June loin values are $4.64/cwt over the 3-year historical average.

All retail hams dipped -0.3% lower to $4.56/lb for June, bringing hams +2.7% over year-ago levels. Current retail price levels are $0.45 over the 3-year average for the month of June. Boneless hams fell -1.8% to $5.57/lb on the month, bringing the cut -5.6% under last year. 

Wholesale ham values averaged $86.21/cwt which was up +2.5% from May values, bringing the latest values +1.9% over year-ago levels and $0.47 over the 3-year average.

The category reporting other retail pork prices fell -3.2% to $3.65/lb, bringing other pork +5.4% over last year. Current levels are 14 cents over the 3-year average for the month of June.

Monthly wholesale pork cutout values declined -1.3% from May into June to $98.93/cwt, up +6.7% compared to a year earlier and $0.26 under the 3-year average.

  July 16, 2024

Weekly Hog Price Recap

Cash hogs started the week higher, however dropped significantly the latter half of the week to weigh regional and national cash considerably under the previous week's average. CME cash declined near daily, down more early in the week. Wholesale pork primal values were mixed to generally higher, with only ribs and butts notably lower (down -6.7% & -3.5%, respectively), supporting US pork cutout $1.28/cwt over the previous week's average.

Monitored Canadian hog markets fell generally $1-$3 per hog lower from the week previous. Hogs out off the OlyW 21 were down the most, followed by those out of Ontario which declined $2.55/hog and Hylife which was down $2.20/hog. The ML Sig 4 fell $2/hog, while BP4/TC4 & the OlyW 20 were each down shy of $2, and Quebec hogs fell $1.15/hog lower. In the US, Tyson hogs declined $1.50/hog while JM hogs dropped $7.75/hog from the previous week.
 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins primarily improved on the week as lower hog values were tempered by another drop in feed costs. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs dropped $2.35/hog while those in the monitored US region declined $1.85/hog from the week previous.

Ontario hog margins dipped $0.20 to $46.60/hog profits, followed by OlyW 20 which improved $0.50 to $46.45/hog profits and ML Sig 4 margins which climbed $0.35 to $46.35/hog profits for the week. Hylife margins edged $0.15 higher to $40.30/hog profits while OlyW 21 weakened $0.65 to $31/hog. Quebec margins continue as the weakest of those monitored, however strengthened $1.20 to $26.65/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins improved $0.35 to $57.55/hog profits while JM margins weakened shy of $6 to $48.55/hog profits for the week.
 

US Regional Margins

• Tyson: $57.56 USD X 1.3629 = $78.45 in Canadian Dollars
• Morrell: $54.45 USD X 1.3629 = $74.21 in Canadian Dollars

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.