Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

     The latest monthly US livestock and meat trade data recorded a surge in pork exports, rising 60.7 million pounds for a monthly tally of 643.5 million pounds for November. This represents a historical high for the month of November, surpassing the previous November high recorded in 2020 at 632.7 million pounds. The month-over-month rise in US pork exports reflects increased quantities sent to Canada, Colombia and South Korea. The latest pork exports for are up 36.0m pounds from a year earlier, bringing them 295.4m pounds or +4.8% over last year-to-date. 

     US pork to Canada typically rises from October into November, however notably jumped from a 14-year low for the month of October upto the second highest historically for the month of November at 54.7 million pounds (under the previous high which was recorded in 2012 at 57.4 million pounds). US pork to Canada surged 15.3m pounds from October, bringing them a modest 655 thousand pounds over last year but 26.4m pounds under last year-to-date. For comparison, the US imported 5.8m pounds more pork from Canada than it exported to the country in the month of November.

     US pork to Colombia increased 12.7m pounds on the month to record a new monthly high surpassing the previous high reached with 41.7m Novemer 2021, with current exports 9.5m pounds over a year earlier and 87.1m above last year-to-date. 

     US pork to South Korea rose 10.5m pounds from October however is 7.8m pounds below last year but 88.3m pounds over last year-to-date. Other destinations for US pork which recorded more moderate month-over-month rises included Japan (up 6.6m pounds), Mexico (up 4.8m pounds), Guatemala (up 3.2m pounds) and Honduras (up 2.5m pounds).

  January 14, 2025

Weekly Hog Price Recap

US cash hog prices varied during the week, with daily national cash up overall however recorded more declines mid-week to end $0.66/cwt lower while daily regional cash was primarily lower with only Friday higher to end $0.79/cwt lower. CME cash fell daily with moves in the front-half of the week down more heavily to finish the week $2.80/cwt lower. Most wholesale pork primals were again lower from the previous week, excluding a +10.6% jump in bellies and a +0.9% climb in rib values. US pork cutout ended -1.3% or $1.15 lower to $89.72 US/cwt from a week earlier.

Canadian hog prices again declined significantly on the week, weighed down by lower slaughter-based pricing and pork cutout values. Hogs out of Quebec fell the most, dropping $16.25/hog, while those out Ontario fell $8.65/hog from last reported. Hogs off the ML Sig 4 were down $8/hog and OlyW 21 fell $7.40/hog while Hylife hogs declined $6.40/hog, the OlyW 20 was $4.35/hog lower and BP4/TC4 fell $2.15/hog. In the US hog values varied, with Tyson hogs edging $0.10/hog higher while JM hogs declined $1.65/hog from the previous week.

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins continue to weaken on lower hog values. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs declined $0.80/hog while those out of the monitored US region were down $0.20/hog from a week earlier.

OlyW 20 hog margins declined $3.55 to $31.35/hog profits, followed by margins off the ML Sig 4 which weakened $7.25 to $25.75/hog profits. Ontario margins weakened $7.85 to $25/hog profits while those out of Hylife dropped $5.60 to $24.15/hog profits. OlyW 21 fell $6.60 to $17.10/hog profits while margins out of Quebec weakened $15.45 to $15.40/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins improved $0.30 to $30/hog profits while JM margins declined $1.40 to $25.55/hog profits.
 

US Regional Margins

• Tyson: $ 29.96 USD X 1.4379 = $ 43.08 in Canadian Dollars
• Morrell: $ 25.56 USD X 1.4379 = $ 36.75 in Canadian Dollars

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.