Market Commentary: Thursday, September 29/22


Hog futures are trading moderately higher on support from today's strong export report. Hopefully the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report displays a bullish outlook for the upcoming quarters, which would undoubtedly add more support to the market. It's tough to say whether or not the market has established a new bottom after sinking to prices not last seen since mid-December 2021. Pork net sales for 2022 were primarily for Mexico, South Korea, and China.

Cash hog prices on the National morning report are lower, the morning cutout value is also lower. 

The Canadian Dollar is trading lower against the US dollar at midday. 

For the week ending Sep 30, the Western Hog Exchange OlyWest 20 weekly price is $2.34/kg dressed, the OlyWest 21 weekly price is $2.43/kg dressed, and the BP4 price is $2.34/kg dressed. This is Kerrie Simpson reporting from the Western Hog Exchange

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

     The latest US livestock and meat trade data reflected total US pork exports at 484.0 million pounds for July, down 47.1 million pounds from June levels and 24.2 million pounds under last year.

     Most major destinations for US pork generally recorded reduced quantities on the latest report. US pork to Mexico was reported 8.8 million pounds lower for July and fell to the lowest level recorded in a year, however, continues at strong levels seasonally and is 13.9 million pounds over last year. US pork to Japan fell 8.5 million pounds to a 6-month low, continuing below last year. US pork to the Dominican Republic dropped 7.7 million pounds or -36.0% lower for July, down to the lowest recorded since last September though remains at historically strong pre-pandemic levels and is +13.3% over last year. Colombia fell 6.8 million pounds from last reported, though continues very strong historically bringing US pork exports to the country 5.0 million pounds over last year.  US pork to South Korea dropped 5.5 million pounds for July, with the latest volume 5.1 million pounds over last year, while China* (including Hong Kong and Taiwan) fell 4.7 million pounds from last reported bringing them 14.8 million pounds under last year. Other notable destinations recorded generally 1–2-million-pound declines such as Canada, Honduras & Australia.

     Total US pork imports fell -14.5 million pounds or –12.3% under June, bringing current imports 14.0 million pounds or +15.7% above year ago levels. US imports of pork from most of their primary foreign suppliers are at increased levels compared to last year. Imports from Canada declined 5.9 million pounds or -8.3% for July and fell to the lowest recorded since last year, bringing them 9.0 million pounds or +16.1% over year ago levels. Despite the steady decline in recent months, quantities of Canadian pork headed to the US remain at strong levels. Notably, the US imported 27.7 million pounds more pork from Canada than it exported to the country for the month of July. US pork imports from Denmark rose 1.3 million pounds or +16.1% from a month earlier and are +83.2% over last year, however the tally recorded for July of last year was considered low seasonally. Mexico declined 600 thousand pounds or -7.1% in July but is +11.0% over last year with year ago levels considered strong historically.

  September 6, 2022


Weekly Hog Price Recap

National cash hog bids were considerably lower in the week ahead of the Labor Day long weekend, with cash hog values down throughout the week. CME cash fell daily with declines heavier early on but carrying through to the end of the week. Wholesale pork values varied during the week though most primals finished under the previous week, with US pork cutout $3.70/cwt under the previous week's average.

Canadian market hog values dropped on significant declines in cash hog pricing. Hogs out of Quebec fell $28.15/hog while those out of Ontario were down $22.75/hog and the ML Sig 4 was $18.85/hog lower. The OlyW 21 fell near $21.50/hog and the OlyW 20 was $16.45/hog lower, while Hylife hogs were down $7.30/hog and BP/TC declined $6/hog. In the US hog, Tyson was down $19.60/hog while JM dropped nearly $37/hog from week ago levels. 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins were heavily pressured by declines in hog values and were further impacted by rising feed prices. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs rose $4.15/hog higher, while those in the monitored US region were up $1.65/hog from the week previous.
 Hog margins out the OlyW 20 weakened $20.55 to $76.65/hog profits on the week, followed by those out of Ontario which weakened $26.85 to $55.10/hog profits. Hog margins out of the ML Sig 4 dropped shy of $23 to nearly $47/hog profits and Hylife margins weakened $11.40 to a little over $32/hog profits. OlyW 21 margins fell $25.55 to $35.80/hog profits and those out of Quebec weakened $32.25 to $1.45/hog profits. In the US, Tyson margins declined $21.25 to $78.65/hog profits while JM weakened $38.60 to $56.50/hog profits from the previous week.

US Regional Margins

  • Tyson: $ 78.66 USD X 1.3097 = $ 103.02 in Canadian Dollars
  • Morrell: $ 56.48 USD X 1.3097 = $ 73.97 in Canadian Dollars

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee, and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.