Things to Consider….
US federally inspected hog slaughter for the US Thanksgiving holiday week was reported at 2,261 thousand head: down -14.2% from a week earlier, -3.4% under last year and -1.4% year-to-date compared to the same weeks in 2020.
US sow slaughter for the week ending November 13th was up +0.4% from the previous week to 60,900 head, which is -7.9% compared to last year. Year-to-date, sow slaughter is up +2.3% compared to the same weeks in 2020.
Canadian federally inspected market hog slaughter for the week ending Nov 20th at 429 thousand head climbed 3.4 thousand or +0.8% from the week previous and is -3.0% compared to last year and -6.0% compared to last year-to-date.
Canadian sow slaughter was reported at 1,643 head for the same week, down -2.2% from the week previous and -7.5% under than the same week last year. Year-to-date, Canadian sow slaughter is -5.9% under last year-to-date however it's worth noting that 2020 reflected a historically strong rate of slaughter.
US pork production fell 78.8 million or -13.9% to 487.9 million pounds during the US holiday week, bringing overall production -4.6% under last year and -1.5% under last year-to-date.
Canadian pork production numbers are estimates derived from current slaughter figures and an annual average Canadian slaughter hog weight. Based on the latest slaughter rates in Canadian weekly pork production climbed +1.7% for the week ending Nov 20th, down -0.1% from year ago levels and -4.0% under last year-to-date.
With market hog slaughter and production hovering around 2018 levels and sow slaughter showing signs of tapering off to more historical levels, the liquidation phase, which has been recorded over the last 18-20 months since packers were forced to shut down in early 2020, is now considered over. For now, sow expansion does not appear to be on the table, however North America sow numbers are likely to level off at current volumes which will also stabilize market hog volumes going forward.