Market Commentary: Friday, May 26/23


Hog futures are trading lower at midday. The July contract is down 2.4%, bringing the contract below 76 cents a pound, after shedding 4.4% yesterday. The contract is now down to its lowest level in seven months, and traders are unsure of where the selling will end. Until the futures complex establishes some sort of a bottom in this market, continued dramatic downward pressure is likely.

Cash hog prices on the National morning report are lower, the morning cutout value is higher.

The Canadian Dollar is trading higher against the US dollar at midday. 

For the week ending May 26, the Western Hog Exchange OlyWest 20 weekly price is $1.91/kg dressed, the OlyWest 21 weekly price is $2.00/kg dressed, and the BP4 price is $1.93/kg dressed. This is Kerrie Simpson reporting from the Western Hog Exchange

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

US retail pork prices in April were lower on the month, though mixed compared to a year earlier. Monthly wholesale pork values also fell in the same period, with most primals also significantly lower than last year’s strong values.

US retail bacon fell -1.0% from March price levels with the average April price at $6.55/lb. The latest bacon prices are down -11.8% from year-ago levels, while current retail bacon prices are $0.22/lb over the 3-year average for the month of April. Wholesale belly values dropped -14.9% during the same period to $80.02/cwt during April, with current values a staggering -55.5% under high values recorded last year. Notably, wholesale belly values are $63.14/cwt under the 3-year historical average.

All retail chops fell -1.6% to $4.10/lb for April, coming down from the new record high reach for the month of March. This brought the latest retail chop prices -1.9% under last year, while current retail price levels $0.20 over the 3-year average for the month of April.  Wholesale loins values declined -3.1% to $80.74/cwt from the previous month, bringing current loin values -19.2% under last year. For comparison, average loin values for April are $11.09/cwt under the 3-year historical average.

All retail hams fell -3.0% to $4.21/lb for April, bringing hams +7.3% over year-ago levels. Current retail price levels are $0.47 over the 3-year average for the month of April. Wholesale ham values averaged $71.33/cwt which was down -10.3% from March values, bringing April values -13.7% under year-ago levels. For comparison wholesale picnics are down $7.77/cwt compared to the 3-year historical average. 

  May 16, 2023

Weekly Hog Price Recap

Cash hogs improved throughout much of the week with exception to Friday, where national cash was notably lower and regional cash went unreported. CME cash was up near daily, excluding Monday which recorded a modest decline. Wholesale pork values improved overall however primals ended the week mixed compared to the previous week's averages. Hams were particularly stronger, up +9.0%, helping to support US pork cutout $1.56/cwt higher than the previous week's average.

Monitored Canadian hog markets generally improved. Markets derived from lagged base pricing were up the most with the OlyW 20 up $6.45/hog, while the OlyW 21 & BP4/TC4 were each up $3.60/hog. Hog values out of Ontario rose $2/hog while those out of Quebec and the ML Sig 4 was nearly unchanged and Hylife slipped $0.60/hog. In the US, Tyson hogs improved $2.85/hog, while JM rose $5.75/hog from the previous week. 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored hog margins strengthened on generally improved hog values and another significant reduction in feed costs. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs fell $4.40/hog, while those in the monitored US region dropped $5.70/hog from the previous week.

ML Sig 4 hog margins strengthened $4.40 to $7.30/hog losses, followed by those out of Hylife which improved $3.80 to $8.25/hog losses. OlyW 20 hog margins strengthened $10.85 to nearly $17/hog losses, while margins out of Ontario were up $6.45 to $17.45/hog losses. The OlyW 21 strengthened $8 to $23/hog losses while hog margins out of Quebec improved $4.45 to $34.85/hog losses. In the US, Tyson margins were up $8.55 to $1.60/hog losses while JM strengthened $11.45 to $0.30/hog losses for the week.

US Regional Margins

  • Tyson: -$ 1.62 USD X 1.3426 = -$ 2.18 in Canadian Dollars
  • Morrell: -$ 0.30 USD X 1.3426 = -$ 0.40 in Canadian Dollars                                                                           

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