Market Commentary: Friday, May 23/25

Transcript

Hog futures are trading fully lower ahead of the US Memorial Day weekend. Traders are uncertain about price direction and also concerned about continued tariff dilemmas. And while it is always helpful for the market to see positive fundamentals, traders seem dull to the support.

Cash hog prices on the National morning report are higher, the morning cutout value is also higher.

The Canadian Dollar is trading higher against the US dollar at midday.

For the week ending May 23, the Western Hog Exchange OlyWest 20 weekly price is $2.29/kg dressed, the OlyWest 21 weekly price is $2.37/kg dressed, and the BP4 price is $2.23/kg dressed. This is Kerrie Simpson reporting from the Western Hog Exchange

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

 

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider…

US retail pork prices in April were primarily lower compared to the previous month, however varied against year-ago prices. Wholesale pork values were also lower overall on the month, but also primarily lower compared to the year previous.
  

US retail bacon climbed +0.4% from the month previous with the average April price at $7.01/lb, bringing the latest prices +5.6% over year-ago levels. For comparison, current retail bacon prices are 14 cents over the 3-year average for the month of April. Wholesale belly values fell -4.2% in April to $137.64/cwt, with current values +11.1% over the year previous. Notably, wholesale belly values are $4.78/cwt over the 3-year historical average.
 

All retail chops were down -2.2% to $4.24/lb for April, bringing the latest retail chop prices a modest +0.2% over last year. For comparison, current retail price levels are $0.07 over the 3-year average for the month of April. Boneless chops fell -3.4% to $4.61/lb, bringing boneless chops +2.2% over last year. Bone-in chop prices declined -1.0% to $4.45/lb, bringing the cut +2.8% over year-ago levels. Wholesale loin values dipped -0.4% lower from the previous month to $87.86/cwt in April, bringing current loin values -10.1% under last year. Notably, April loin values are $4.14/cwt under the 3-year historical average.
 
 
All retail hams fell -1.0% lower to $4.45/lb for April, bringing hams -0.8% under year-ago levels. Current retail price levels are $0.24 over the 3-year average for the month of April. Boneless hams declined -2.3% to $5.47/lb on the month, bringing the cut -2.2% under last year. Wholesale ham values averaged $83.96/cwt which was down -3.7% from March values, bringing the latest values -3.1% under year-ago levels and $3.35 under the 3-year average.
 
 
The category reporting other retail pork prices fell -1.5% to $3.68/lb, bringing other pork -1.0% under last year. Current levels are 5 cents over the 3-year average for the month of April.

  May 20, 2025

  
   
  

Weekly Hog Price Recap

US cash hogs varied during the week however again averaged above the week prior. National cash recorded a sizeable $6.69/cwt decline Friday which pushed it to a modest $0.20/cwt over the previous week's average, while regional cash was up more in comparison as Friday went unreported with the WCB up $1.01/cwt and the ISM up $0.92/cwt from a week earlier. CME cash improved near daily with rises generally stable, overall up $0.61/cwt. Most wholesale pork primals improved on the week, supporting US pork cutout +2.1% or $2.05 higher to $98.10 US/cwt from a week earlier.


 

Canadian hog prices continued to improve this past week, excluding OlyW 21 R2 hogs which dipped $0.20/hog lower. The OlyW 20 was up $1/hog, while BP4/TC4 was up $2.15/hog. Quebec hogs improved $2.20/hog while those out of Manitoba such as Hylife and the ML Sig4 were each up $3.65/hog, and Ontario rose $4.55/hog. In the US, Tyson hogs rose $2.65/hog while JM hogs improved $2.10/hog from the previous week.

  

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored hog margins strengthened on another week of improved hog values. Feed costs were generally supportive, with Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs $1.15/hog lower while those out of the monitored US region edged $0.30/hog higher from a week earlier.

Ontario hog margins strengthened $5.70 to $59.60/hog profits, followed by those off the ML Sig 4 which rose $4.80 to $55.85/hog profits out of Brandon and $51.70/hog profits out of Lethbridge. OlyW 20 hog margins improved $2.15 to $54.10/hog profits and Hylife margins strengthened $4.80 to $53.45/hog profits, while Quebec margins were up $3.35 to $42.55/hog profits and the OlyW 21 climbed nearly $1 to $36.40/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins strengthened $2.40 to $67.30/hog profits while JM margins improved $1.85 to $60.65/hog profits.
 

US Regional Margins:

  • Tyson: $ 67.32 USD X 1.3979 = $ 94.11 in Canadian Dollars
  • Morrell $ 60.64 USD X 1.3979 = $ 84.77 in Canadian Dollars




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