Market Commentary: Wednesday, November 30/22

Transcript

Hog futures are trading higher at midday, with a bullish narrative from outside markets as China eases some COVID-19 restrictions, promising improved consumer demand for things like pork. The concentration of buying activity in the front-month December futures contract is a sign that short-term speculators are the ones driving today's price action. While hog futures traders are reacting positively to the story of China and its consumer demand, there is going to be continued risk of volatile up-or-down days, because the effectiveness of citizen protests or government reactions will evolve over time.

Cash hog prices on the National morning report are higher, the morning cutout value is lower.

The Canadian Dollar is trading higher against the US dollar at midday. 

For the week ending Dec 2, the Western Hog Exchange OlyWest 20 weekly price is $2.05/kg dressed, the OlyWest 21 weekly price is $2.14/kg dressed, and the BP4 price is $2.09/kg dressed. This is Kerrie Simpson reporting from the Western Hog Exchange

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

US retail bacon prices recorded a new historical high, rising +3.0% on the month to $7.61/lb. Compared to last year, the latest prices are +4.0% over year-ago levels with October of last year also recording a new historical high at the time of reporting. Current retail bacon prices are $1.38 over the 3-year average for the month of October. 

Wholesale belly values were up +1.6% to $138.55/cwt during October, with current values -25.5% or $47 under this time last year. Current values are $4.25 under the 3-year average. Notably, wholesale belly values recorded last year were among the highest historically.

All retail chops were up +2.1% to $4.27/lb for October, also a new historical high, bringing the latest retail cut +3.0% over last year. Current retail price levels are 60 cents over the 3-year average for the month of October. Wholesale loins values fell -6.8% to $91.43/cwt from the previous month, and are -10.4% under last year.  The latest wholesale loin values are $0.84 over the 3-year average.

All retail hams increased +2.3% to $4.44/lb for October, surpassing the previous record reached the month previous, bringing hams +13.2% over year ago levels. Current retail price levels are 83 cents over the 3-year average for the month of October. Wholesale ham values averaged $108.40/cwt which was up +3.6% from September, and current values are nearly $36 higher or +49.4% over year ago levels. For comparison, wholesale picnics averaged $81.27/cwt, up +0.4% from September and +12.2% over last year. Compared to their respective 3-year averages, current wholesale ham values are $31 higher while picnics are up nearly $15. 

The category reporting other retail pork prices fell 

-1.9% lower to $3.64/lb, coming down from the record high recorded a month earlier, bringing other pork +2.2% over last year. Current levels are 55 cents over the 3-year average for the month of October.

  November 22, 2022





Weekly Hog Price Recap

Despite improving much of the week, cash hogs averaged under a week earlier as late-week declines weighed on overall prices and national cash faced additional pressure at the start of the week. CME cash moved more moderately in comparison, however declined near daily. Wholesale pork primal values fell throughout the majority of the week, with most primals ending lower. US pork cutout was $1.76/cwt under the previous week's average.



Monitored hog markets generally declined $6-$10 per hog on the week. Hog values out of Quebec, the OlyW 20 and BP/TC each fell around $10/hog, while the OlyW 21 was $7.50 lower. The ML Sig 4 & hog values out of Hylife were each down near $6/hog while those out of Ontario slipped almost $5.50/hog. In the US, Tyson hog values were $4.50/hog lower while JM was $2.50/hog under the previous week. 

Weekly Hog Margins

Hog margins continue to be pressured by lower in hog and pork values however were again partially offset by another decline in feed costs. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs dropped $2.30/hog, while those in the monitored US region slipped $0.70/hog from a week earlier.

Hog margins out the OlyW 20 weakened $7.75 to more than $21/hog profits. ML Sig 4 margins fell shy of $4 while Ontario hog margins weakened $3 with each recording nearly $9/hog profits. The OlyW 21 weakened $5.25 to $6.25/hog profits and Hylife margins were down nearly $4 to $5.25/hog profits, while Quebec weakened $7.75 to $14.25/hog losses. In the US, Tyson margins were down $4 to $17.25/hog profits while JM declined near $2 to $8.75/hog profits for the week.
 

US Regional Margins

  • Tyson: $ 17.20 USD X 1.3325 = $ 22.92 in Canadian Dollars
  • Morrell: $ 8.70 USD X 1.3325 = $ 11.59 in Canadian Dollars



Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee, and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.





Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

     The latest US livestock and meat trade data reflected stable US pork exports in the month of September. Total US pork exports at 513.0 million pounds were up a modest 544 thousand pounds from a month earlier and 2.8 million pounds over last year. Current US pork exports are down -13.4% year-to-date, largely attributed to the strong export rates recorded in the front-half of 2021.

     US pork to Japan rose 12.5m pounds in September, bringing current exports 5.6m pounds over last year, while pork to Canada jumped 11.3m pounds on the month but is 5.2m pounds under year ago levels. Other destinations recorded more moderate improvements such as Australia & the Dominican Republic which were each up more than 2 million pounds from August, and Colombia which climbed 1.1 million pounds. 

     US pork to Mexico and China* recorded the largest declines from the month previous with the Philippines, South Korea and Honduras also reporting notable 3-5 million pound reductions. Mexico dropped 10.5m pounds from August and while current export levels are 4.3m pounds under year ago levels, US pork to Mexico continues at strong levels historically. Mainland China decreased their imports of US pork by 8.7m pounds in the latest data, bringing total exports to China* (including Hong Kong and Taiwan) 8.9m pounds under last reported however 3.1m pounds over last year. 

     Total US pork imports for September fell 9.7m pounds or -8.7% under the month previous, bringing the latest imports 7.8m pounds or -7.1% under last year's record strong levels. Imports from Canada declined 4.0m pounds or -5.6% for September, down 3.4m pounds or -4.9% under last year. Notably, the US imported 14.9m pounds more pork from Canada than it exported to the country for the month of September.

  November 15, 2022


 




Weekly Hog Price Recap

Cash hogs were mixed to lower during the week, with regional cash down near daily while national cash recorded some mid and late-week improvements. CME cash was down each day with moves recording a generally steady pace. Wholesale pork primals finished mixed, with lower bellies, loins and butts weighing US pork cutout $1.16/cwt under the previous week's average.



Monitored hog markets continue to fall as a result of lower cash hog and pork values. Hog values out of Ontario dropped $12.75/hog, followed by those out of ML with the Sig 4 down $10.25/hog while those out of Quebec & Hylife were each down near $9/hog. The OlyW 20 fell $7.75/hog, while the OlyW 21 was down $4.60/hog and BP/TC declined $2.85/hog. In the US, Tyson hog values fell $7.45/hog while JM was $6.35/hog under the week previous. 

Weekly Hog Margins

Hog margins continue to be pressured by declines in hog and pork values, however were offset in part by a significant drop in feed costs this week. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs dropped $5.50/hog, while those in the monitored US region fell $2.25/hog from a week earlier.

Hog margins out the OlyW 20 weakened $2.30 to $29/hog profits. ML Sig 4 margins fell $4.75 to $12.60/hog profits, while Ontario hog margins weakened $7.25 to shy of $12/hog profits and the OlyW 21 strengthened $0.85 to $11.50/hog profits. Hylife margins were down $3.50 to $9/hog profits, while Quebec weakened $3.75 to $6.45/hog losses. In the US, Tyson margins declined $5.20 to more than $21/hog profits while JM weakened $4 to $10.60/hog profits from the previous week.
 

US Regional MarginsTyson:

  • Tyson: $ 21.12 USD X 1.3448 = $ 28.40 in Canadian Dollars
  • Morrell: $ 10.59 USD X 1.3448 = $ 14.24 in Canadian Dollars



Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee, and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.