Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

History in the Making- US weekly pork cutout values are currently trading over $100 US/cwt and have been for the past 2 weeks, a feat not achieved in recent history for this time of year as illustrated in the 20 year cutout graph dating back to 2005. Of course, cutout has traded above $100 US however it has not happened in the early weeks of November signalling a major shift in current pork demand.

Considering the USD Index trading above 105 the strength in cutout is that much more impressive as pork around the globe remains high valued when converted to other international currencies.

Two of the main drivers behind the aggressive move in cutout have been counter-seasonal strength in bellies and ribs which traditinoally trend lower into the cooler months of the year however given mild temperatures and a “late” fall continue to see strong domestic demand.

Cash hog prices continue to be a reflection of strong meat prices moving to above $90 US per cwt matching the price of market hogs from the week of August 9^th this year. With no major changes expected in pig supply, cash hog prices are expected to continue steady heading into the holiday weeks of late Novemebr when prices traditionally bottom for the year.

  November 12, 2024

Weekly Hog Price Recap

US cash hog prices were again steady to higher over the week with both regional and national markets gaining additional ground from the week prior. National pm over the 5-day week recorded an average gain of $0.15 US per cwt, however Friday over Friday values were $2.61 higher or +3.3% as the market peaked Thursday before a notable decline on Friday.  CME cash was $2.54 higher on the weekly average but finished Friday over Friday plus $0.64 US/cwt. Wholesale pork primals registered a small loss, the first in over 4 weeks slipping just $0.76 US/cwt, or 0.7% below the week earlier. Cutout finished the week at $102.38 (Friday close), the 9th week out of the last 10 above $100.

Canadian hog prices were again significantly higher in most regions as strong US bids from the last 2 weeks flowed into local markets and clashed with a struggling Loonie which continues to prop up the Canadian exchange rate.  After making strong gains the week prior ML Sig 4 again registered gains of $8.06/hog from the week prior, Hylife prices were flat slipping $1.03 and Olymel prices were both higher by $9.41 (OlyW21) and $10.78 (OlyW20). In the US, Tyson hogs had a notable gain of $4.04/hog while JM hogs climbed by $2.91 US/hog.     

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins were mostly higher week over week apart from HyLife due to a pullback in its local pricing. Western regions recorded a change ranging from -$2.36-+$9.45 per hog while Eastern markets were higher from $5.83 to $6.72 per hog. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs were slightly higher up $1.46 from the previous week as grain prices remained steady/firm with a steady exchange rate.

Ontario hog margins were higher, managing a positive move of $6.72 to $50.55/hog, ML Sig 4 (MB) margins were higher up $6.73 to $45.23/hog profits. HyLife margins were steady/weak down $2.36 to $45.94/hog profits and OlyW 20 hog margins were higher by $9.45, while Quebec hog margins were gainers this week rising $5.83 to $49.26 per hog.  OlyW 21 gained $8.08 to $36.13/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins had another positive week adding another $3.06 while JM margins were higher by $1.93 at $36.55/hog profits.
 

 US Regional Margins

• Tyson: $ 40.07 USD X 1.3892 = $ 55.67 in Canadian Dollars
• Morrell: $ 36.55 USD X 1.3892 = $ 50.78 in Canadian Dollars 

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.