Market Commentary: Thursday, April 3/25

Transcript

Hog futures are trading lower as the general market tone Thursday remains weak. Compared to the rest of the livestock trade, hog futures seem to have worked most of the tariff and demand concerns into the complex. With nearby contracts trading in the bottom half of short-term market levels, it is uncertain just how much more active selling pressure will develop given the current fundamental market support. According to the weekly export sales report, net sales of 53,000 mt for 2025, a marketing-year high, were up 66% from the previous week and 88% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico, China, and Japan. Exports of 32,900 mt were up 4% from the previous week and 1% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico, South Korea, and Japan.

Cash hog prices on the National morning report are lower, the morning cutout value is also lower.

The Canadian Dollar is trading sharply higher against the US dollar at midday.

For the week ending Apr 4, the Western Hog Exchange OlyWest 20 weekly price is $2.28/kg dressed, the OlyWest 21 weekly price is $2.37/kg dressed, and the BP4 price is $2.24/kg dressed. This is Kerrie Simpson reporting from the Western Hog Exchange

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

 

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to consider…

         The latest US Cold Storage numbers reported pork stocks at 423.1 million pounds for February, up +3.9% or 15.9m pounds from January which was revised -0.7% lower from 410.2m to 407.3m pounds. Compared to a year earlier, the latest pork stocks were down -7.7% or  35.5m pounds lower as many pork categories fell below year-ago levels. Current year-to-date stocks fell 91.6m pounds or -9.9% compared to those recorded for Jan-through-Feb 2024.
 
          Bellies in cold storage jumped 6.9m pounds in February but were 15.2m pounds under supplies recorded for last year and -28.4% or 35.9m pounds under last year-to-date. Total ham stocks rose 4.2m pounds on the month, with the bone-in variety rising 7.0m pounds and the boneless dropping 2.8m pounds, and overall were up 13.1m pounds compared to a year earlier which brought them +12.1% or 17.7m pounds over last YTD. Spare-ribs were up 3.9m pounds from previously reported, bringing them 475 thousand pounds under last year and 4.9m pounds or -2.8% under last YTD, while the category accounting for 'Other pork' increased 2.4m pounds for February which was 10.5m pounds under last year and down -23.1% or 22.5m pounds under last YTD. Pork butts were up 2.0m pounds from January supplies and up a modest 173 thousand pounds compared to a year earlier which brough them 245 thousand pounds or -0.6% under last YTD, while unclassified pork was up 514 thousand pounds on the month but down 11.0m pounds compared to last year and -24.4% or 22.6m pounds under last YTD. Total loins climbed 256 thousand pounds from stocks recorded for January, down 7.9m pounds under last year and 16.6m pounds or -19.6% under last YTD.

         Variety meats dropped 2.3m pounds in February, bringing them 5.9m pounds under a year earlier and -21.5% or 11.3m pounds under last last-to-date. Trimmings declined 1.6m pounds from January stocks, up a modest 623 thousand pounds higher compared to last year  and +2.1% or 2.0m pounds over last YTD. Bone-in picnics were down 442 thousand pounds, but up 1.5m pounds compared to year-ago stocks and +25.6% or 2.7m pounds over last YTD.

  April 1, 2025

 
  

 
 
 


Weekly Hog Price Recap

US cash hogs averaged lower overall due to mid-week declines with national cash down $0.32 to $88.70/cwt, the WCB edging $0.14 lower to $88.89/cwt and the ISM down $0.50 to $88.80/cwt from a week earlier. CME cash averaged lower as well, however daily moves were mostly higher, with the latest week $0.27 lower to $88.95/cwt. Wholesale pork primals were primarily higher, excluding hams which dropped -4.6%, supporting US pork cutout a modest +0.2% or $0.15 higher to $96.39 US/cwt from a week earlier.



Canadian hog prices again fell around $1-$3 per hog on the week, excluding Quebec hogs which were down $0.70/hog. Ontario hogs and those out of Hylife each fell $1.15/hog, followed by hogs off the Sig 4 which were down $1.30/hog. Markets derived from lagged base pricing were down the most with BP4/TC4 declining $2.80/hog, the OlyW 20 $3/hog lower and the OlyW 21 $3.10/hog lower. In the US, Tyson hogs fell $1.80/hog while JM hogs slipped $0.30/hog from the previous week.

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins were lower overall on declining hog values despite a moderate reduction in feed costs. Farrow-to-finish feed costs on either side of the CAN/US border fell around $0.80/hog from a week earlier.

Hog margins off the OlyW 20 as well as those out of Ontario finished the week at $52.85/hog profits, weakening $2.20 and $0.40 per hog respectively. ML Sig 4 hog margins fell $0.55 to $50/hog profits out of Brandon and $45.80/hog profits out of Lethbridge, while Hylife margins were down $0.40 to $47.20/hog profits. Hog margins out of Quebec edged $0.10 higher to $40.75/hog profits, while OlyW 21 margins weakened $2.30 to $35.75/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins fell $1 to $58.05/hog profits while JM margins improved $0.50 to $48.15/hog profits.
 

US Regional Margins

  • Tyson: $ 58.06 USD X 1.4300 = $ 83.03 in Canadian Dollars
  • Morrell: $ 48.16 USD X 1.4300 = $ 68.87 in Canadian Dollars


 




Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.






Click Here to View