Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider…

The latest data for Canadian domestic pork exports reflected December at 120.5 thousand MT, up +5.2% from the previous month and -2.5% under a year earlier. Pork export values for December improved +3.1% from Nov and +6.0% compared to a year earlier. 

Total swine carcass and cut exports were up +6.3% to 74.5 thousand MT, bringing current exports –3.9% under last year. Overall values climbed +2.9% on the month and were up +5.5% compared to the previous December. For perspective, the latest value per unit of $4.31/KGM declined -3.2% from a month earlier and is +9.8% over a year earlier. 

Ham exports fell –17.7% from November levels to 18.5 thousand MT, bringing them –6.9% under last year, while the values of these exports were down –12% on the month but +0.8% over year-ago values. For perspective, the latest value per unit at $3.75/KGM improved +6.9% from Nov and +8.2% over last year.

Belly exports increased +18.2% to 1,450 MT in the latest data, bringing current exports –13.4% under last year. Belly export values rose +11.6% on the month and were +18% over year-ago values. For perspective, the latest value per unit at $10.27/KGM were down -5.6% from November but up +36.3% higher compared to last year. 

Pork shoulder exports dropped -76.7% for December to 26.9 MT, bringing them -45.7% under last year, and values were down comparatively. For perspective, values per unit at $8.77/KGM fell -3.3% on the month and were -0.8% under last year. 

Edible swine offal exports rose +48.2% in December to 16.7 thousand MT, bringing them +6.2% over last year. For perspective, swine offal values per unit of $2.59 /KGM fell -1% from Nov but up +10.3% over last year. 

For reference, Canadian pork production in 2024 was down -1.1% compared to the previous year of 2023. Notably, the percentage of Canadian pork production exported globally was estimated at 73% for December, compared to the 12-month average of 65%, and 19.6% went to the US in Dec compared to the 18% 12-month average. 

  February 18, 2025

Weekly Hog Price Recap

US cash hogs primarily improved during the week, however again went unreported Monday and pulled back notably Friday (generally $2-$2.50/cwt lower), bringing both national cash and regional cash around $3.80/cwt above the previous week. CME cash continues to improve daily, however recorded better rises the latter half of the week to end up $2.59/cwt above last week's average. Wholesale pork primals were higher overall, only ribs fell - down -2.8%, supporting US pork cutout up +5.4% or $5.16 higher to $100.17 US/cwt from the week previous.

Weekly Canadian hog prices recorded another week of strong improvements, up overall between $4-$9.50 per hog from a week earlier. Hylife hogs were up the most, rising $9.55/hog, followed by hogs out of Quebec which improved $8.05/hog and Ontario which were $6.20/hog. Markets derived from lagged base pricing were up more moderately with BP4/TC4 up $5.25/hog, the OlyW 20 $4.45/hog higher and OlyW 21 up $3.50, while the ML Sig 4 improved $3.90/hog from last reported. In the US, Tyson hogs improved $4.40/hog while JM hogs rose $8/hog from the week previous.

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored hog margins strengthened on improved hog values and a reduction in feed costs. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs dropped $2.75/hog while those out of the monitored US region were down $1/hog from a week earlier.

Hylife hog margins strengthened $12.30 to $45.45/hog profits, followed by margins out of Ontario which rose $9 to shy of $43/hog profits. ML Sig 4 margins were up $6.65 to $39.40/hog profits out of Brandon and $35.20/hog profits out of Lethbridge. Quebec hog margins strengthened $10.85 to $38.65/hog profits, while OlyW 20 margins rose $7.20 to $38.25/hog profits and the OlyW 21 R2 improved $6.25 to $25.15/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins rose $5.40 to $46/hog profits while JM margins strengthened $9 to $45.70/hog profits.
 

US Regional Margins

• Tyson: $45.99 USD * 1.4267 = $65.61 CAD
• Morrell: $45.72 USD * 1.4267 = $65.23 CAD

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.