Market Commentary: Wednesday, November 29/23


Hog futures are trading mostly higher this morning with follow through buyer support moving into the complex. Lightly traded spot December contracts remain slightly lower at midday with most of the trade volume in early 2024 contract months. February futures have now moved back above $70 per cwt, rebounding over $3 per cwt from contract lows set early in the week. There is very little additional fundamental market news, which is likely to add significant support to the overall complex, but the ability to put even more distance between current price levels and recent contract lows should help add market support to price levels through the end of the week.

Cash hog prices on the National morning report are higher; the morning cutout value is also higher.

The Canadian Dollar is trading lower against the US dollar at midday.

For the week ending Dec 1, the Western Hog Exchange OlyWest 20 weekly price is $1.78/kg dressed, the OlyWest 21 weekly price is $1.98/kg dressed, and the BP4 price is $1.86/kg dressed. This is Kerrie Simpson reporting from the Western Hog Exchange

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

The latest US Cold Storage numbers reported pork stocks at 435.9 million pounds for October, down 25.7m pounds from September and 73.8m pounds under year-ago levels. Notably, September's cold storage amount was revised -0.2% lower from 462.8m pounds down to 461.7m pounds. 

Hams in cold storage dropped seasonally, with hams overall typically falling from August or September until the end of the year. Total hams were down 36.1m pounds from September stocks and 8.1m pounds under the year previous. The other notable decline from last reported was recorded in bellies, down 1.7m pounds for October and brings current supplies 12.3m under last year. The latest monthly belly stocks are the lowest recorded since November 2021 at 25.2m pounds. Spare-ribs rose 8.6m pounds in October, bringing them 40.0m pounds under 2022 (an exceptional high period for the primal), while butts were up 3.4m pounds on the month however is down shy of a million pounds compared to a year earlier. Total loins in cold storage climbed 1.2m pounds from last reported, primarily due to increased quantities of bone-in loins, with loin stocks overall more than a half a million pounds under October 2022.

Beef in US cold storage rose 23.5 million pounds from the previous report, bringing beef stocks 65.9 million pounds under last year. Notably, current boneless beef stocks represent a 6-month low, falling 21.3m pounds in October and 57.7m pounds under the same month last year. Beef cuts climbed 2.2m pounds from September stocks, down 8.2m pounds compared to a year earlier.

Total chicken stocks were up 26.3 million for October with ‘other chicken’ accounting for nearly half of the increase, bringing current supplies 33.7m under a year earlier. Broilers, fryers and roasters slipped half a million pounds on the month and is 1.5m pounds under last year, while hens fell 1.7m pounds in October and is up 2.5m compared to a year earlier.

  November 21, 2023


Weekly Hog Price Recap

Regional and national cash hogs declined the majority of the week with Tuesday & Friday down the most. CME cash was also lower overall, recording largest declines late-week. Wholesale pork primal values varied from the week previous however significantly lower loins and bellies, and additionally hams, weighed US pork cutout $1.41/cwt a week earlier.

Monitored markets were generally down $1-$3 per hog, with exception to the OlyW 21 which climbed $1/hog. Market hogs out of Ontario fell $3.15/hog, followed by those out of Hylife which declined $3/hog and BP4/TC4 was down $2.55/hog. ML Sig 4 hogs fell $1.20/hog, while Quebec was closer to $1/hog lower and the OlyW 20 slipped $0.65/hog. In the US, Tyson hogs fell $6.45/hog while JM hog values dropped $8.25/hog from the previous week. 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored hog margins continue to be pressured by declining hog values and higher feed costs. Farrow-to-finish feed costs on either side of the Canadian/US border were each around $1.60/hog higher than the previous week.

Hog margins out of Hylife weakened $4.60 to $8.25/hog losses, followed by those off the ML Sig 4 which declined $2.75 to $8.50/hog losses. OlyW 20 margins were down $2.25 to $12.60/hog losses, while OlyW 21 margins slipped $0.55 to $15.40/hog losses. Ontario hog margins weakened $4.75 to $16.75/hog losses while Quebec hog margins fell $2.65 to $20.25/hog losses. In the US, Tyson hog margins dropped $8 to shy of $13/hog losses while JM margins weakened $9.85 to $26.65/hog losses for the week.

US Regional Margins

  • Tyson: -$12.90 USD X 1.3718 = -$17.70 in Canadian Dollars
  • Morrell:  -$26.65 USD X 1.3718 = -$36.56 in Canadian Dollars       

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