Things to Consider…. The Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report was released Thursday, December 23rd. The latest NASS/USDA report indicated a +0.5% or 384 thousand head increase in All Hogs & Pigs compared to last year, with the category for market hogs up +0.5% and the breeding herd up +0.1% for the December quarter. Overall, the report generally met market analysts' pre-report estimates. Compared to the previous quarter, the breeding herd fell 40 thousand head or -0.7%, while market hogs overall were down 211 thousand or -0.3% from last reported. Both market hog weight groups ranging from under 50 pounds to 119 pounds recorded increases of more than 1% from last year however both are lower than the previous quarter (-2.7% and -5.2% respectively), while heavier weight groups of up to 179 pounds and over 180 pounds were modestly under those reported year-ago (down around a half-percent) but are up +2.6% and +8.5% respectively over the previous quarter.
The September to November pig crop was reported at 35,238, up 2% over last year but dipped -0.6% from the previous quarter. Sow farrowing for the latest period was generally stable, down a modest -0.2% from a year earlier, while intentions are expected to continue at or above year ago levels for the next two periods (Dec-Feb & Mar-May). Pigs per litter continue to forge new historical highs at 11.92 pigs per litter reported for the September-November period, up +1.7% from the previous quarter, +2.2% on the year and a percent over pre-report estimates. Revisions, as stated on the report: “All inventory and pig crop estimates for December 2022 through September 2024 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. The revision made to the September 2024 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.5 percent. A revision of 1.2 percent was made to the June-August 2024 pig crop. The net revision made to the June 2024 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.4 percent. A net revision of 1.1 percent was made to the March-May 2024 pig crop. The net revision made to the September 2023 all hogs and pigs inventory was 2.2 percent. A net revision of 2.6 percent was made to the June-August 2023 pig crop".
| January 3, 2025 
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Weekly Hog Price Recap US cash hog prices started the week higher ahead of the New Year holiday, however daily moves varied the latter half of the week. Regional cash finished $0.85/cwt higher while national cash was up $1/cwt. CME cash declined daily in the holiday week with mid-week moves considered more moderate, with the week ending shy of $1/cwt lower. Most wholesale pork primals were significantly lower, only butts and ribs improved, pressuring cutout to end -4.5% or $4.26 lower to $90.87 US/cwt from a week earlier. |
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Canadian hog prices fell considerably on the week, weighed down by lower slaughter-based pricing and lower pork cutout values. Hylife hogs dropped $4.45/hog followed by those out of Ontario which were down $3.30/hog. Quebec hogs fell $2.60/hog while the ML Sig 4 was down $2.15/hog. Markets derived from lagged base pricing recorded improvements on the week with the OlyW 21 climbing $0.30/hog, the OlyW 20 up $1.65/hog and BP4/TC4 $3.50/hog higher. In the US hog values varied, with Tyson hogs down $2/hog while JM hogs improved $1.75/hog from the previous week. 
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Weekly Hog Margins Monitored Canadian hog margins weakened on lower hog values and a jump in feed costs. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs jumped $2.80/hog while those out of the monitored US region were up near $1/hog from a week earlier. OlyW 20 hog margins declined $1.15 to $34.85/hog profits, followed by margins off the ML Sig 4 which weakened shy of $5 to $33/hog profits. Ontario margins weakened $6.10 to $32.80/hog profits while those out of Quebec dropped $5.40 to $30.90/hog profits and Hylife margins weakened $7.30 to $29.80/hog profits. OlyW 21 fell $2.50 to $23.70/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins weakened $3 to $29.65/hog profits while JM margins improved $0.80 to $27/hog profits.
US Regional Margins - Tyson: $29.63 USD * 1.4407 = $42.69 CAD
- Morrell: $26.98 USD * 1.4407 = $38.87 CAD
Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission. Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication. |