Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

The latest US federally inspected hog slaughter was reported at 2,593 thousand head: down 12.6 thousand head or -0.5% from the previous week, -0.7% over the same week last year and +1.0% over last year-to-date. 

US sow slaughter for the week ending October 19 rose 6.1% or 3,500 head higher from the week prior to 60,500 head, which is -1.4% under last year and -1.6% below last year-to-date.

US pork production dropped -0.7% or 3.9 million lbs lower on the week to 552.4 million pounds for the latest week, bringing overall production -0.5% over last year and up +1.5% compared to last year-to-date.

The combination of sluggish hog weights, which currently are in line with 2023 and surprisingly steady weekly hog slaughter has forced weekly pork production to drop below 2023 levels for only the second time since early May 2024.   The 2024/2034 week over week comparison for pork production (black line) illustrates a downtrend since the beginning of Sep adding fuel to the existing hog market rally. 

Cash hog markets and lean hog futures have both reflected the reduction in available pork supplies which is also echoed by the firm bids in US pork cutout this past week.

  October 29, 2024

                         

 

Weekly Hog Price Recap

Cash hogs were higher this week across all markets illustrating a counter-seasonal move as product values provided major support to live hog bids. National pm prices were the least impacted over the 5-day week recording a weekly average gain of $1.05 US per cwt, however Friday over Friday values were over $3 higher.  CME cash was $1.05 higher on the weekly average but finished Friday over Friday plus $1.34 US/cwt indicating the near-term trend has changed. Wholesale pork primals were also notably higher, recording gains of $2.72 US per cwt or 2.8% above the week earlier. Cutout finished the week at $98.16 (5-day average), a high since Aug 16 week.




 Canadian hog markets were higher again as the combination of strong US cash hog bids were combined with ongoing gains in the Canadian exchange rate helping keep producers in positive margin territory for another week.  After making strong gains the week prior ML Sig 4 again registered gains of $1.39/hog from the week prior, Hylife recorded a gain of $3.50 and Olymel prices were both higher by $1.30 (OlyW21) and $1.11 (OlyW20). In the US, Tyson hogs had a significant gain of $10.41/hog while JM hogs climbed moderetly by $4.04 US/hog.  

 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins were higher again week over week as the combination of stronger hog prices and lower feed prices worked in the favour of producers.  Western regions recorded gains ranging from $1.50 to as much as $3.60 while Eastern markets were also higher from $1 to $2.93 per hog. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs were 78 cents per hog lower adding a fraction to the margin gains this week.

Ontario hog margins were higher, not as much as last week but still managed a positive move gaining $1.32 to $32.73/hog, ML Sig 4 (MB) margins were stronger up $1.56 to $31.99/hog profits. HyLife margins rose the greatest within the Canadian market up $3.60 to $30.42/hog profits and OlyW 20 hog margins strengthened $3 to $31.01/hog profits, while Quebec hog margins were propped up by $2.93 to $27.15 per hog.  OlyW 21 gained $2.78 to $21.99/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins had a very strong week recovering from recent declines adding as much as $8.14 to $33.49/hog profits while JM margins were slightly lower by $0.81 at $18.34/hog profits.  Main difference between US markets was hog pricing as feed prices were steady lower in most US corn producing regions.
 

US Regional Margins

  • Tyson: $ 43.48 USD X 1.3844 = $ 60.19 in Canadian Dollars
  • Morrell $ 21.97 USD X 1.3844 = $ 30.42 in Canadian Dollars 





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