Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

  October 22, 2024

Like market hog prices, small pig values have also done well over recent month with isowean values bottoming in late summer (which is very seasonal) and feeder pigs also registering a low in late July before grinding higher into the fall.  

USDA reported cash prices which are not necessarily the greatest representation of open market values, have moved 2024 to the second highest in the last 5 years, only behind 2021 for both isowean and feeder pigs (red lines).    Long-term pricing graphs also shown, indicate small pig pricing in US dollars are very near the mid-range of historical values shown using a 52-week moving average. The price spikes of 2014 and 2022 can be considered outliers given certain conditions during those years, leaving current values very near the average. 

Historically, small pig producers should continue to see favorable pricing through the fall and winter months carrying into the 1^st quarter of 2025 based on current lean hog and feed prices.

Weekly Hog Price Recap

Cash hogs were steady to slightly lower mainly caused by a sharp decline on Thursday and Friday which pulled the weekly averages below previous week levels. National pm prices which were reported every day this past week recording a weekly average change of -$0.29 US per cwt.  CME cash was narrowly lower ending the week 21 cents below the prior Friday's weekly average close. Wholesale pork primals were also steady again holding at prices seen since late summer at $95.44 (5 day average) trading 36 cents above the previous 5 day average.

Canadian hog markets were higher fuelled by a lower dollar/higher exchange rate for the 4th week in a row with prices ranging from $0.97 to $2.82 higher per hog CAD. After making strong gains the week prior ML Sig 4 was the least to add value ending $0.78/hog from the week prior, Hylife recorded a gain of $2.82 and Olymel prices were both higher by $2.00 (OlyW21) and $2.23 (OlyW20). In the US, Tyson hogs had a significant gain of $6.98/hog while JM hogs declined by $1.98 US/hog as regional US markets struggled to report enough hogs to bolster price.   

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins were higher again week over week as the combination of stronger hog prices and lower feed prices worked in the favour of producers. Western regions recorded gains ranging from $1.50 to as much as $3.60 while Eastern markets were also higher from $1 to $2.93 per hog. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs were 78 cents per hog lower adding a fraction to the margin gains this week.

Ontario hog margins were higher, not as much as last week but still managed a positive move gaining $1.32 to $32.73/hog, ML Sig 4 (MB) margins were stronger up $1.56 to $31.99/hog profits. Hylife margins rose the greatest within the Canadian market up $3.60 to $30.42/hog profits and OlyW 20 hog margins strengthened $3 to $31.01/hog profits, while Quebec hog margins were propped up by $2.93 to $27.15 per hog.  OlyW 21 gained $2.78 to $21.99/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins had a very strong week recovering from recent declines adding as much as $8.14 to $33.49/hog profits while JM margins were slightly lower by $0.81 at $18.34/hog profits. Main difference between US markets was hog pricing as feed prices were steady lower in most US corn producing regions.

US Regional Margins

• Tyson:  $ 33.49 USD X 1.3792 = $ 46.19 in Canadian Dollars
• Morrell $ 18.34 USD X 1.3792 = $ 25.29 in Canadian Dollars

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.