Things to Consider….

     The latest US livestock and meat trade data recorded increased US pork exports in the month of November with the total at 578.0 million pounds, up 38.4m pounds from a month earlier however a modest 2.5m pounds under last year. Current US pork exports are down 722.6m pounds under last year-to-date, largely attributed to the strong export rates recorded in the front-half of 2021.

     Many major destinations for US pork recorded significant increases from previously reported. Increased monthly pork exports overall reflect higher quantities shipped to Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Canada and South Korea.  Mexico rose 11.5m pounds on the month with current export levels 844 thousand pounds under year-ago levels, though still considered very strong historically, while the Dominican Republic jumped 8.5m pounds from the month previous and is 11.8m pounds over 2021. US pork exports to Canada fell 7.2m pounds for November, up a modest 894 thousand pounds over a year-ago, while South Korea was up 7.0m pounds on the month and is 4.0m pounds over last year.

     US pork exports to the Philippines, Australia, Chile and Japan recorded notable decreases from previously reported. Japan slipped 1.4m pounds in November, bringing current exports 16.2m pounds under last year, while pork to Chile rose 2.1m pounds on the month and is 2.4m pounds under last year. Pork to Australia fell 2.2m pounds on the latest report, bringing them 869 thousand pounds under year-ago levels, while the Philippines dropped 3.3m pounds for November however is 3.7m pounds over last year.    

     Total US pork imports in November fell 4.3m pounds or -4.1% from the month previous, bringing the latest imports 32.1m pounds or -24.3% under last year's strong record levels. Pork imports from Canada declined 1.5m pounds or -2.3% on the month, bringing imports from Canada down 14.7m pounds or -18.2% under last year. Notably, the US imported 13.4m pounds more pork from Canada than it exported to the country for the month of November.  

  January 17, 2023

Weekly Hog Price Recap

Regional cash hogs varied during the week, posting some mid-week rises, however national cash fell daily. CME cash also recorded steady declines throughout the week. Wholesale pork primal values were lower overall, excluding ribs, dragging US pork cutout $3.89/cwt under the previous week's average.

Market hog values continue to be pressured by declining hog and pork values. The overall Quebec market hog value was down the most, $10.65/hog lower, followed closely by those out of Ontario which were down $10.35/hog. Hylife fell shy of $9/hog, while the ML Sig 4 was down $8.50/hog. The OlyW 21 fell $7.20/hog, while the OlyW 20 was $6.85/hog lower, and BP/TC fell $2.65/hog. In the US, Tyson hog values fell $3.55/hog while JM was down $3.30/hog from the previous week. 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored hog margins continue to weaken on declining hog and pork values however were offset again in part by another modest decline in feed costs. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs fell $1/hog, while those in the monitored US region were stable to modestly lower from the previous week.

Hog margins out of the OlyW 20 fell $5.80/hog to $27.50/hog losses, while margins out of ML Sig 4 were down $7.45 to $30.15/hog losses. Hylife margins weakened $7.90 to $34.20/hog losses, while the OlyW 21 fell $6.15 to $36.70/hog losses. Ontario hog margins weakened $9.30 to $44/hog losses, while those out of Quebec overall were $9.55 lower to $45/hog losses. In the US, Tyson weakened $3.50 to $15.20/hog losses while JM fell $3.25 to $23.25/hog losses for the week.

US Regional Margins

  • Tyson: -$15.21 USD X 1.3401 = -$20.38 in Canadian Dollars
  • Morrell -$23.24 USD X 1.3401 = -$31.14 in Canadian Dollars                                                                             

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee, and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.