Things to Consider….

US retail bacon prices recorded a new historical high, rising +3.0% on the month to $7.61/lb. Compared to last year, the latest prices are +4.0% over year-ago levels with October of last year also recording a new historical high at the time of reporting. Current retail bacon prices are $1.38 over the 3-year average for the month of October. 

Wholesale belly values were up +1.6% to $138.55/cwt during October, with current values -25.5% or $47 under this time last year. Current values are $4.25 under the 3-year average. Notably, wholesale belly values recorded last year were among the highest historically.

All retail chops were up +2.1% to $4.27/lb for October, also a new historical high, bringing the latest retail cut +3.0% over last year. Current retail price levels are 60 cents over the 3-year average for the month of October. Wholesale loins values fell -6.8% to $91.43/cwt from the previous month, and are -10.4% under last year.  The latest wholesale loin values are $0.84 over the 3-year average.

All retail hams increased +2.3% to $4.44/lb for October, surpassing the previous record reached the month previous, bringing hams +13.2% over year ago levels. Current retail price levels are 83 cents over the 3-year average for the month of October. Wholesale ham values averaged $108.40/cwt which was up +3.6% from September, and current values are nearly $36 higher or +49.4% over year ago levels. For comparison, wholesale picnics averaged $81.27/cwt, up +0.4% from September and +12.2% over last year. Compared to their respective 3-year averages, current wholesale ham values are $31 higher while picnics are up nearly $15. 

The category reporting other retail pork prices fell 

-1.9% lower to $3.64/lb, coming down from the record high recorded a month earlier, bringing other pork +2.2% over last year. Current levels are 55 cents over the 3-year average for the month of October.

  November 22, 2022

Weekly Hog Price Recap

Despite improving much of the week, cash hogs averaged under a week earlier as late-week declines weighed on overall prices and national cash faced additional pressure at the start of the week. CME cash moved more moderately in comparison, however declined near daily. Wholesale pork primal values fell throughout the majority of the week, with most primals ending lower. US pork cutout was $1.76/cwt under the previous week's average.

Monitored hog markets generally declined $6-$10 per hog on the week. Hog values out of Quebec, the OlyW 20 and BP/TC each fell around $10/hog, while the OlyW 21 was $7.50 lower. The ML Sig 4 & hog values out of Hylife were each down near $6/hog while those out of Ontario slipped almost $5.50/hog. In the US, Tyson hog values were $4.50/hog lower while JM was $2.50/hog under the previous week. 

Weekly Hog Margins

Hog margins continue to be pressured by lower in hog and pork values however were again partially offset by another decline in feed costs. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs dropped $2.30/hog, while those in the monitored US region slipped $0.70/hog from a week earlier.

Hog margins out the OlyW 20 weakened $7.75 to more than $21/hog profits. ML Sig 4 margins fell shy of $4 while Ontario hog margins weakened $3 with each recording nearly $9/hog profits. The OlyW 21 weakened $5.25 to $6.25/hog profits and Hylife margins were down nearly $4 to $5.25/hog profits, while Quebec weakened $7.75 to $14.25/hog losses. In the US, Tyson margins were down $4 to $17.25/hog profits while JM declined near $2 to $8.75/hog profits for the week.

US Regional Margins

  • Tyson: $ 17.20 USD X 1.3325 = $ 22.92 in Canadian Dollars
  • Morrell: $ 8.70 USD X 1.3325 = $ 11.59 in Canadian Dollars

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee, and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.