Things to Consider….

The latest data for Canadian pork exports recorded July at 111.6 million KGM, the lowest in the last 6 months, which was down –8.8% from June but is +7.1% over last July which was the low of 2021. Pork export values inched higher at $3.59/KGM for July which is near even with last year and a modest $0.12/KGM or +3.4% from the previous month.

Overall, all pork export categories declined in July from previously reported however the value per unit increased for each as well. 

Pork shoulder exports fell 49% from June levels to 44.6 thousand KGM, though continues strongly for this time historically. Notably, pork shoulder exports for June represented a 5-year high for the month historically. Pork shoulder export values were up the most in the latest data, up $1.23 or +13.7% higher to $10.20/KGM for July. 

Belly exports declined –11.1% to 1.7 million KGM for July and are –15.4% under year ago levels. Compared to last year, export belly values are up $1.06/KGM or +14.8%, with year ago values representing the third highest in 2021 (behind Nov & Dec).

Total swine carcass and cut exports were down –7.2% from June to 72.0 million KGM for July, bringing them +10.6% over a year earlier. For perspective, their July values at $3.90/KGM edged +2.6% high than June and are –2.3% under last year. 

Total ham exports fell –15.6% for July at 18.7 million KGM bringing them –3.3% under last year. For perspective they valued at $3.49/KGM for July, rising +8.3% from June and +11.5% over year ago levels.

For perspective, the percentage of Canadian pork production that is exported to the United States was 22.5% for July, up from 19.4% a month earlier and 15.1% calculated for July 2021.

  August 30, 2022

Weekly Hog Price Recap

Cash hogs began the week higher however the back-half of the week recorded daily declines, with regional cash down heavily Thursday while national cash recorded large declines Thurs & Friday. CME cash fell daily with declines increasing through to the end of the week. Wholesale pork values dropped significantly, particularly bellies, with mid-week pressure to primals weighing US pork cutout $14.21/cwt under the previous week's average.

Canadian market hog values were significantly lower, particularly those with cutout-dependant base pricing given the recent drop in pork cutout values. Hylife hogs dropped $27.25/hog while hog values out of Quebec fell $16.50/hog, Ontario was down $9.35/hog and the ML Sig 4 declined shy of $6/hog. The OlyW 20 fell near $3/hog and the OlyW 21 was $1.80/hog lower, while BP/TC improved $2/hog. In the US hog, Tyson was down $3.80/hog while JM dropped $7.25/hog from week ago levels. 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins were heavily pressured by declines in hog and pork cutout values, and further impacted by rising feed prices. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs jumped $6.50-$6.75/hog higher, while those in the monitored US region were up around $5/hog higher from the week previous.
 
 Hog margins out the OlyW 20 weakened $9.60 to $97.25/hog profits on the week, followed by those out of Ontario which weakened $16 to $82.15/hog profits. Hog margins out of the ML Sig 4 dropped $12.60 to $69.85/hog profits and Hylife margins weakened a significant $34 to $43.50/hog profits, while OlyW 21 margins were down $8.50 to $61.40/hog profits and those out of Quebec weakened $23.15 to $33.70/hog profits. In the US, Tyson margins declined $8.90 to nearly $100/hog profits while JM weakened $12.35 to $95.10/hog profits from the previous week.
 

 US Regional Margins

• Tyson: $ 99.93 USD X 1.2983 = $ 129.74 in Canadian Dollars
• Morrell: $ 95.10 USD X 1.2983 = $ 123.47 in Canadian Dollars

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee, and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.