Things to Consider….

The latest data for Canadian pork exports recorded March at 137.1 million KGM, the second highest historically, up +17.6% from February and –1.0% from year ago levels which represent the historical high. Export values declined overall at $3.05/KGM, down $0.14 or -4.3% from the previous month and $0.28 or -8.3% under last year.

Notably Canadian pork exports to the US reached a new historical high of 45.2 million KGM, surpassing the previous high recorded in October 2014 at 44.2 million KGM.

Total swine carcass and cut exports increased +17.0% from February to 85.6 million KGM for March, bringing them +3.4% over a year earlier. For perspective, their March values at $3.37/KGM declined -6.3% from Feb and -11.1% under last year.

Total ham exports increased +11.6% for March at 28.0 million KGM bringing them -9.0% under last year. For perspective they valued at $2.62/KGM for March, climbing +3.1% from February however was -11.8% under year ago levels.

Pork belly exports surged +29.3% for March to 2.4 million KGM and is +3.1% over last year. Pork belly values for March at $6.54/KGM edged -3.7% lower from February however were +8.7% over last year.

Pork shoulder exports increased +5.2% for March at 68.3 thousand KGM however is -35.7% under year ago levels. Export pork shoulder values were $5.46/KGM for March, which was -26.9% under February and -25.1% under year ago levels.

Total edible swine offal was recorded at 10.9 million KGM for March, up +33.4% from February and -6.8% from last year. For perspective, edible swine offal export values at $1.99/KGM for March declined -4.4% on the month and -7.8% under last year.

Total pig fat and lard were recorded at 10.0 million KGM for March, up +22.8% on the month but were -5.9% compared to year ago levels. For perspective, pig fat and lard export values for March were $1.85/KGM, up +3.4 from February and +29.1% compared to year ago levels.

Pork values as measured by the USDA cut-out have gained $14 in the last 2 weeks providing underlying support to cash and futures markets.  Cut-out traditionally remains firm during the later summer months but will depend on foreign buying from major importers like Mexico and China.

  May 31, 2022

Weekly Hog Price Recap

Regional and national cash hogs declined most of the week however generally recovered good strength midweek to help cash hogs average above the previous week. Alternatively, CME cash recorded good rises throughout the week. Wholesale pork primals finished higher, supporting US pork cutout $3.76/cwt from the previous week's average.

Market hog values improved overall, excluding those derived from lagged base pricing. Hog values out of Ontario rose $8.55/hog, followed by those out of Hylife which were up $7.25/hog from a week earlier. The ML Sig 4 improved near $6/hog while those out of Quebec rose $5.25/hog. The OlyW 21 was up $0.50/hog, while hog values off the OlyW 20 edged $0.25/hog lower and BP/TC values dropped $5.15/hog. In the US, Tyson rose $6/hog while JM was up near $3/hog from week ago levels. 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored hog margins improved on stronger hog values and a reduction in feed costs. Farrow-to-finish feed costs climbed $0.40-$0.50/hog on either side of the Canadian/US border from a week earlier.

Hog margins out the OlyW 20 edged $0.60 lower to $36.85/hog profits on the week, followed by those out of Ontario which strengthened $8.15 to near $34/hog profits. Hog margins out of the ML Sig 4 improved $5.65 to $23.60/hog profits, while Hylife margins rose $6.85 to $22.20/hog profits and OlyW 21 margins were modestly higher, up $0.10 to $9.35/hog profits. Hog margins out of Quebec continue in the red, though strengthened $4.85 to $11/hog losses. In the US, Tyson margins rose $5.50 to $59.10/hog profits while JM was up $2.55 to $58.85/hog profits from the previous week.
 

US Regional Margins

• Tyson: $ 59.11 USD X 1.2798 = $ 75.65 in Canadian Dollars
• Morrell $ 58.84 USD X 1.2798 = $ 75.30 in Canadian Dollars

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee, and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.