Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

What a difference a year can make. Twelve months ago in November of 2023 hog producers in Canada were faced with negative margins associated with high feed costs, poor hog prices and a relatively flat Canadian dollar.  Fast forward to today and you will see that Canadian and US hog producers are experiencing record margins influenced by the opposite of all 3 influences seen just 12 months ago.  

Feed prices across the nation have normalized and retreated to “reasonable” levels, hog prices are near or at record highs for this time of year and the Canadian dollar has dropped to a 4.5 year low providing a very favorable exhange rate for Canadian producers.

The historical margin graph illustrated below really puts into persective the magnitude of current margins compared to recent years.  Not any other year in the last 10 have Canadian hog producers experienced positive margins, let alone margins in the $40+ per hog range.  By this time of year, seasonal slaughter levels have climbed to budensome levels and cash hog bids begin their decline eroding margins until generally the second quarter of the next year.  However 2024 and the start of 2025 appear to be different. 

Margins are robust as ever, rivaling mid-summer levels of previous years.  As always producers have the ability to protect against major changes in the market place and these current levels ceratinly offer that opporuntiy. 

  November 19, 2024

March 2025 Soymeal

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March 2025 Wheat

Weekly Hog Price Recap

US cash hog prices were firm in regional markets peaking on Wednesday before pulling back towards the end of the week. National pm over the 5-day week was firm closing $3.55 US per cwt higher, however Friday over Friday values were $3.00 higher or +3.7%.     CME cash was lower dropping $0.75 per cwt on the weekly average and finished Friday over Friday minus $1.53 US/cwt. Wholesale pork primals registered a loss, dropping below $100 slipping $3.87 US/cwt, or 3.8% below the week earlier. The drop in cutout was led by major declines in bellies which spiralled $17.20 lower or just over -10% on the week.

Most Canadian hog prices were again firm with exception of those closely tied to the cutout which as mentioned experienced some major declines this week. The Canadian dollar once again helped prop up local pricing with further losses recordedin the Loonie pushing the BoC noon rate above 1.4000 for the first time since May of 2020, over 4.5 years ago.  ML Sig 4 again registered gains of $1.35/hog from the week prior, Hylife prices were notably lower slipping $5.71 and Olymel prices were both higher by $1.30 (OlyW21) and $3.67 (OlyW20). In the US, Tyson hogs were steady/firm gaining $2.97/hog while JM hogs climbed by $3.54 US/hog.     

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins were mostly higher week over week except for HyLife and regions of Quebec due to closer linkages to pork values versus hog prices. Western regions recorded a change ranging from -$5.77 to +$3.61 per hog while Eastern markets were steady or lower from $0.10 to -$8.69 per hog. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs were flat this week moving $0.09 higher from the previous week.

Ontario hog margins were flat, maintaining a value at $50.64/hog, ML Sig 4 (MB) margins were higher up $1.29 to $46.52/hog profits. HyLife margins were lower down $5.77 to $40.17/hog profits and OlyW 20 hog margins were higher by $3.61, while Quebec hog margins were the greatest hit with a loss of $8.69 to $40.57 per hog.  OlyW 21 gained $1.24 to $37.37/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins had another positive week adding another $3.06 while JM margins were higher by $3.63 at $40.17 US/hog profits.
 

US Regional Margins

• Tyson: $ 43.14 USD X 1.4008 = $ 60.43 in Canadian Dollars
• Morrell: $ 40.17 USD X 1.4008 = $ 56.27 in Canadian Dollars 

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.