Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

*Highest recorded December pork cutout in over 25 years*

Rarely is history made in December when it comes to the hog and pork industry, but this past week has provided the industry with something to be truly excited about.

Recent strength in many pork primal cuts have resulted in the new record overall, continuing the pace which started earlier in the year. 

This past Friday's pork cutout was reported at $94.61/cwt, a gain of $3.45 from the Friday previous and brings cutout $10.28/cwt over last year, a new high for the month of December long term.

Wholesale hams are a major contributor to the strength trading above $100 at $102.96/cwt, a value not seen since mid August and a value never registered before in history for hams in the month of December.

Pork cutouts’ relationship to CME cash has also maintained a normal spread which indicates packers continue to operate within historical margin parameters passing on much of the meat strength to the industry through cash markets.

December 17, 2024

Weekly Hog Price Recap

US cash hog prices were notably lower in regional markets recording losses between $4-6 US per cwt while the CME Index was able to maintain much of its value from the prior weekly average posting a small decline. 

The national pm 5-day average closed -$4.30 US per cwt lower, down 5.1%. CME cash was slightly lower dropping -$0.13 per cwt on the weekly average. Wholesale pork primals registered a solid gain, climbing $2.98 US/cwt, or 3.3% above the week earlier. Friday over Friday pork cutout values were also higher by $3.45 per cwt indicating continued strength in pork demand.

Canadian hog prices were mixed this week with markets tied to regional US prices slipping while packers connected to cutout/meat values were steady to firm. The Canadian dollar continued to trade negative this week lifting the exchange rate again adding value to ALL regions. The Canadian dollar has now traded below 70 cents US for the first time in nearly 5 years dating back to March of 2020. ML Sig 4 registered a slight gain of $1.18/hog from the week prior, Hylife prices were also higher by $2.66 and Olymel prices were both lower by -$1.40 (OlyW21) and -$2.22 (OlyW20). In the US, Tyson hogs were higher gaining $5.32/hog while JM hogs were sharply lower by -$12.13 US/hog due to its relation to regional pricing.

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins were mostly higher with exception of markets in Alberta because of the slightly lower cash and a slight softening of feed prices. Western regions recorded a change ranging from -$1.22 to +$3.62 per hog while Eastern markets were higher from +$1.97 to +$6.28 per hog. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs were slightly lower on weakness in grain markets.

Ontario hog margins were slightly positive gaining $1.97 at $33.10/hog, ML Sig 4 (MB) margins were firm up $2.14 to $32.26/hog profits. HyLife margins were higher by $3.62 to $31.44/hog profits and OlyW 20 hog margins were lower by -$1.26, while Quebec hog margins turned higher with the cutout gains, up $6.28 to $21.38 per hog. OlyW 21 lost -$0.44 to $15.87/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins were slightly positive over the week gaining $1.92 while JM margins were sharply lower by -$11.03 at $30.50 US/hog profits.

US Regional Margins

• Tyson:  $ 46.53 USD X 1.4174 = $ 65.95 CAD
• Morrell: $ 30.50 USD X 1.4174 = $ 43.23 CAD

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

The latest monthly US livestock and meat trade data recorded pork exports at 582.8 million pounds, up 33.6m pounds from September. The month-over-month rise in US pork exports reflects a surge in increased quantities sent to Mexico, China and South Korea, at a time when they typically reduce their imports of US pork. Current pork exports for Oct are up 10.6m pounds from a year earlier, bringing them 259.3m pounds or +4.7% over last year-to-date. 

US pork to Mexico climbed 17.4m pounds from previously reported monthly numbers, with current exports -10.4m pounds below a year earlier but 98.0m above last year-to-date. US pork to China* (including Hong Kong & Taiwan) was up 5.8m pounds overall from Sep quantities and is 17.0m pounds above a year earlier and 107.6m pounds under last year-to-date. US pork to Colombia decreased 2.1m pounds from last year and is -1.0m pounds below last year-to-date and a significant 77.6m pounds (36%) over last year-to-date.

Strong year to date exports (+4.7%) have been a significant underlying support factor for pork cutout and resulting US cash hog bids.  Expectations are for pork exports to continue strong into the end of the year based on current weekly reported commitments.

  December 10, 2024

Weekly Hog Price Recap

US cash hog prices were mostly lower with regional markets recording losses between $1-2 per cwt with exception of select regions which showed minor gains however did not report all days over the week skewing the data. The national pm 5-day average closed -$1.58 US per cwt lower, down 1.8%. CME cash was lower dropping $1.40 per cwt on the weekly average. Wholesale pork primal cuts registered a small loss, slipping $0.60 US/cwt, or 0.7% below the week earlier. Friday over Friday however pork cutout values were higher indicating continued strength in pork demand.

Most Canadian hog prices were again lower but remain above historical values. The Canadian dollar returned to negative trade this week lifting the exchange rate slightly limiting some of the weakness. ML Sig 4 registered losses of -$4.07/hog from the week prior, Hylife prices were also lower slipping -$3.54 and Olymel prices were both lower by -$5.91 (OlyW21) and -$5.00 (OlyW20). In the US, Tyson hogs were higher gaining $1.17/hog while JM hogs edged slightly higher by $0.58 US/hog.

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins were significantly lower this week as the lower cash hogs were paired with a sharp increase in feed costs. Western regions recorded a change ranging from -$10.99 to -$13.36 per hog while Eastern markets were lower from -$10.77 to -$11.22 per hog. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs were sharply higher as grain prices rallied on newly released supply estimates and gains in the CAN/US Exchange Rate.

Ontario hog margins were lower slipping -$11.22 at $31.12/hog, ML Sig 4 (MB) margins were down -$11.52 to $30.12/hog profits. HyLife margins were lower down -$10.99 to $31.12/hog profits and OlyW 20 hog margins were lower by -$12.45, while Quebec hog margins were also hit with a loss of -$10.77 to $15.11 per hog.     OlyW 21 lost -$13.36 to $16.31/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins were slightly negative over the week dropping -$1.03 while JM margins were lower by -$1.62 at $41.53 US/hog profits.
 

US Regional Margins

• Tyson: $ 44.61 USD X 1.4070 = $ 62.77 in Canadian Dollars
• Morrell: $ 41.53 USD X 1.4070 = $ 58.43 in Canadian Dollars 

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.