Market Commentary: Friday, May 27/22

Transcript

Hog futures are trading mixed at midday in light trading ahead of the US Memorial Day long weekend. Demand for meat has been pressured by outside forces like higher energy costs and inflation. Packers may bid lower today as most of the business is finished for the week. Consumer demand for pork will need to remain strong after Memorial Day or cutouts may falter resulting in price weakness.

Cash hog prices on the National morning report are lower, the morning cutout values are higher.

The Canadian Dollar is trading higher against the US dollar at midday. 

For the week ending May 27, the Western Hog Exchange OlyWest 20 weekly price is $2.34/kg dressed, the OlyWest 21 weekly price is $2.36/kg dressed, and the BP4 price is $2.27/kg dressed. This is Kerrie Simpson reporting from the Western Hog Exchange

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

 

Things to Consider….

Cash hog prices have traded relatively flat since the middle of February when the CME lean hog index hit $100 US per cwt for the first time in 2022.  Only in the last week have regional markets, like the WCB or ISM surpassed their highs of the year trading upwards of $110 US.     With continued strength expected in regional markets, the index price is projected to move higher entering the second half of the second quarter.  

Tightening hog supplies south of the border which have been confirmed by many sources have the potential to raise lean hog cash prices further. However, without strength in cut-out, cash is going to be limited in its advances as packers are not willing to purchase abundant supplies at inverted margins.  

Historically, cash can trade above cut-out however as shown in the Cash vs Cut-out Price Spread graph, the occurrence of cash above cut-out does not last very long.     Since 2015 there are less then 20 days where the spread was inverted/negative.  

Pork products are going to be the limiting factor heading into the summer months.  The cut-out graph illustrates how pork primals were tracking like 2021 throughout April but dropped off sharply at the start of May which is counter-seasonal when entering the summer months.

Recent news has referenced some easing of lockdowns in China as of late which could lead to pork purchases aiding the value of primals in the coming weeks and months.  Also improving weather conditions in North America are leading to expectations of seasonal increases to consumption. 

With the recent collapse in lean hog futures producers are encouraged to take advantage of the annual top in cash markets until premiums are restored in the forward markets.

  May 10, 2022





Weekly Hog Price Recap

Regional and national cash hogs were mixed to generally higher on good mid-week rises while recording declines at the start and end of the week. Alternatively, CME cash fell daily however recorded more moderate moves compared to cash hogs. Wholesale pork primals varied during the week with pork cutout ending $0.21 /cwt over the previous week's average.



Canadian market hog values were generally lower on the week, excluding those derived from lag-based pricing mechanisms. Hog values out of Ontario fell $2.10/hog, followed by those out of Hylife and the ML Sig 4 with each down $1.50/hog from a week earlier. The OlyW 21 slipped $0.60/hog, while the OlyW 20 improved $3/hog. Hog values out of Quebec edged $0.40/hog higher, while BP/TC values were up $7.25/hog. In the US, Tyson hog values were up $1.30/hog while JM fell $1.20/hog from week ago levels. 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored hog margins improved on the week despite some pressure to hog values, receiving support from a significant decline in feed costs. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs dropped $4.25/hog while those out of the monitored region in the US fell shy of $3/hog from a week earlier.
 
Hog margins out the OlyW 20 strengthened $7.30 to $38.65/hog profits on the week, followed by those out of Ontario which improved $2.20 to $29.65/hog profits. Hog margins out of the ML Sig 4 and Hylife each strengthened $2.75 to $22.65 and $19.55 per hog respectively, while the OlyW 21 improved $3.70 to $14.20/hog. Hog margins out of Quebec continue in the red, however strengthened $4.70 to $11.30/hog losses. In the US, Tyson margins improved $4.25 to $50.70/hog profits while JM was up $1.75 to $49.35/hog profits from the previous week.
 

US Regional Margins

  • Tyson: $ 50.71 USD X 1.2851 = $ 65.17 in Canadian Dollars
  • Morrell: $ 49.37 USD X 1.2851 = $ 63.45 in Canadian Dollars


Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee, and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.