Market Commentary: Friday, June 21/24

Transcript

Hog futures are trading mixed as the market is seeing modest support for its nearby contracts, but the market's deferred contracts are still trading lower. The morning's export sales report showed that pork net sales for 2024 were down 29% from the previous week and 34% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico, Japan, and the Dominican Republic. It's likely that the July and August contracts could keep their higher tone through the day's end with the support of better domestic pork interest.

Cash hog prices on the National morning report are lower, the morning cutout value is higher.

The Canadian Dollar is trading lower against the US dollar at midday.

For the week ending June 21, the Western Hog Exchange OlyWest 20 weekly price is $2.25/kg dressed, the OlyWest 21 weekly price is $2.37/kg dressed, and the BP4 price is $2.24/kg dressed. This is Kerrie Simpson reporting from the Western Hog Exchange

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

 

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

US retail pork prices for May were higher than the month previous and above year-ago prices. Bacon prices improved +2.7% to $6.82/lb which is up +7.6% over last year, while chops were up +3.7% in the latest data to $4.39/lb and is +4.8% over year-ago prices. Retail hams were up +2.0% to $4.58/lb from the previous month and is +4.1 over a year earlier, while the category accounting for all other pork climbed +1.4% from April prices to $3.76/lb and brings the category +4.6% over year-ago prices. Monthly wholesale pork values improved overall from April into May, with US pork cutout rising +1.2% on the month to $100.25/cwt and brought it +21.3% over year-ago values. Wholesale loins were up +3.8% from April and +21.4% over last year, while butts rose +4.2% on the month and is +6.6% over year-ago values. Wholesale picnics climbed +1.4% from the previous month and is up +16.9% on the year, while ribs improved +2.5% from April and is +49.1% above year-ago values. Wholesale hams fell -3.0% in May but is +4.9% over last year while bellies dipped -0.2% on the month but is a strong +55.9% over a year earlier.

US retail beef prices for the month of May varied from the previous month however continue at elevated levels compared to a year earlier. Uncooked ground increased +0.8% to $5.60/lb which is +4.6% over last year while roasts were unchanged at $7.47/lb bringing them +5.7% over a year earlier. Beef steaks edged -0.1% lower to $10.73/lb which is up +5.0% over a year earlier, while the category accounting for all other beef (not veal) prices fell -3.0% to $7.03/lb and is up +8.5% over year-ago prices. Wholesale beef values also improved in May, with choice cutout up +2.1% to $304.97/cwt and a modest +0.2% over a year earlier, while select cutout edged +0.3% higher on the month to $294.77/cwt and up +3.3% over last year.

US retail broiler prices at $2.44/lb for May improved +1.2% on the month but is -0.6% under a year earlier, while wholesale broiler values for the same period rose +5.5% from a month earlier to $1.13/lb which is +16.8% over last year.

  June 18, 2024

 



Weekly Hog Price Recap

Regional and national cash hogs were mixed during the week however declines recorded the latter half of the week weighed the 5-day averages under previously reported. CME cash also varied, with modest mid-week improvements not enough to offset the pressure of declines remaining days. Most wholesale pork primal values averaged lower, with exception to bellies and loins, weighing US pork cutout $0.53/cwt under the previous week's average.



Monitored Canadian hog markets generally recorded more moderate moves this past week.  OlyW 21 was down $0.80/hog, while hog values out of Ontario and Quebec were each down around $0.25/hog. ML Sig 4 climbed $0.15/hog and the OlyW 20 improved $0.45/hog, while Hylife was up $0.75/hog and BP4/TC4 increased $2.10/hog. In the US market hog values fell, with Tyson hogs dropping $2.25/hog while JM hogs declined $0.40/hog from the previous week.
 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins weakened overall on very little improvement in hog values coupled with an uptick in feed costs. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs climbed $0.35/hog while those in the monitored US region slipped $0.10/hog from a week earlier.

Ontario hog margins weakened $0.65 to $47.25/hog profits, followed by margins off the OlyW 20 which improved $0.10 to $46/hog profits and the ML Sig 4 which dipped $0.20 to $45.25/hog profits. Hylife margins were up $0.40 to $39.70/hog profits, while Quebec margins fell $0.60 to $34.40/hog profits and OlyW 21 margins weakened 1.15 to $32.35/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins weakened $2.15 to $49/hog profits while JM margins were down $0.30 to $42.30/hog profits for the week.
 

US Regional Margins

  • Tyson: $48.94 USD X 1.3746 = $67.27 in Canadian Dollars
  • Morrell: $42.32 USD X 1.3746 = $58.17 in Canadian Dollars    



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