Market Commentary: Thursday, September 21/23

Transcript

Hog futures are trading lower in all months as traders remain skeptical of the United States economy amid the prospect of an extended period of high borrowing costs around the world, and don't see enough immediate support in today's market to justify trading the contracts higher. It's likely that the market sees this pressure through closing and looks to Friday's market, or even next week's market, for direction and a way to move forward. Pork net sales for 2023 were up 31% from the previous week and 1% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico, South Korea, and Canada.

Cash hog prices on the National morning report are unavailable; the morning cutout value is lower.

The Canadian Dollar is trading lower against the US dollar at midday.

For the week ending Sep 22, the Western Hog Exchange OlyWest 20 weekly price is $2.10/kg dressed, the OlyWest 21 weekly price is $2.28/kg dressed, and the BP4 price is $2.11/kg dressed. This is Kerrie Simpson reporting from the Western Hog Exchange

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

        The latest monthly US livestock and meat trade data recorded at 504.7 million pounds dropped 79.2m pounds in July however held 20.7m pounds over last year. Compared to last year-to-date, US pork exports for 2023 so far are up 322.3m pounds or up +8.9% compared to the same months in 2022. 

        Most destinations for US pork recorded decreased amounts for July. US pork exports to Japan recorded the greatest month-over-month decline, down 22.4m pounds from June and is 6.7m pounds under a year earlier. US pork to China* (including Hong Kong & Taiwan) fell 17.5m pounds in July however is a modest 310 thousand under last year. Pork exports to South Korea was 11.1m pounds lower in July and is 10.9m pounds under 2022, while Mexico fell 10.2m pounds from June but is 18.1m pounds over last year and the Philippines fell 5.2m pounds on the month however is only 558 thousand pounds under a year earlier. Other destinations such as Australia, Colombia, the Dominican Republic and Honduras were generally down 2-3m pounds from June levels and are 0.5-2m pounds under last year. US pork to Canada slipped 581 thousand pounds in July however is 4.9m pounds over last year, bringing 2023 year-to-date 24.7m over the same months in 2022.
 

        Total US pork imports in July were up +2.3% or 2.1m pounds on the month higher to bring the latest imports 8.4m pounds or -8.1% under 2022, and 180.6m pounds or -21.8% under last year-to-date. The monthly rise in imports can be attributed to increases from Poland and Denmark, both of which are under year year-ago levels, tempered by a decrease from Mexico with is modestly under amounts recorded in 2022. Pork imports from Canada edged 340 thousand pounds lower on the latest report, bringing them 1.9m pounds or -3.0% under a year earlier. For comparison, the US imported 20.8m pounds more pork from Canada than it exported to the country in the month of July.

  September 12, 2023

                



Weekly Hog Price Recap

Regional and national cash hogs varied in the holiday shortened week, recording lower prices early on though improved mid-week before declining again at the week's end. CME cash fell the front-half of the week however improved more modestly the latter half to end with a lower overall average. Wholesale pork values improved as primals were up at the start and end of the week to offset reported mid-week declines, with US pork cutout ending $3.91/cwt over the week previous.



Monitored hog markets were significantly lower again this week, with those derived from lagged base pricing down the most. The OlyW 20 dropped near $19.50/hog, while the OlyW21 was down around $17.50/hog and BP4/TC4 fell shy of $14/hog. The ML Sig 4 declined $10.30/hog, followed by hog values out of Ontario which fell $9/hog. Hylife hogs were down shy of $7/hog while those out of Quebec declined $2/hog. In the US, Tyson hogs dropped $11/hog while JM was down $6.30/hog from the previous week. 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored hog margins continue to weaken on falling hog values and were further pressured by an uptick in feed costs. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs climbed $0.85/hog higher while those in the monitored US region were up $0.25/hog from the previous week.

Hog margins off the ML Sig 4 were down more than $11 to $24.10/hog profits and Hylife fell $7.75 to $23.35/hog profits. The OlyW 20 weakened $20.25 to $22.85/hog profits, while margins out of Ontario declined shy of $10 to $20.35/hog profits. OlyW 21 hog margins weakened $18.25 to $10/hog profits while Quebec was down more modestly, falling $2.85 to $4.15/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins weakened $11.30 to $18.65/hog profits and JM margins fell $6.60 to $11.85/hog profits for the week.
 

US Regional Margins

  • Tyson: $18.64 USD * 1.3647 = $25.44 in CAD
  • Morrell: $11.84 USD * 1.3647 = $16.16 in CAD



Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.





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